June 22, 2024

The cycle of relegation and promotion in the Premier League

This season is unique because it is the first time since the 1997-98 season that all three promoted teams have been relegated at the end of the season.

The curtains have come down on yet another Premier League season. The champion is elated, the relegated outfits are dejected, and there is renewed hope for the promoted teams from the EFL Championship.

Luton Town could not survive its first season in the Premier League. | Photo Credit: Action Images via Reuters

The curtains have come down on yet another Premier League season. The champion is elated, the relegated outfits are dejected, and there is renewed hope for the promoted teams from the EFL Championship.

The cycle of promotion and relegation over the years has been interesting to note, over the years.

This season is unique because it is the first time since the 1997-98 season that all three promoted teams have been relegated at the end of the season. In the 1997-98 season, Barnsley, Bolton and Crystal Palace were relegated. At the end of this season, it is Luton Town, Burnley and Sheffield United.

From a numerical perspective, the probability of newly-promoted teams surviving relegation the following season is more than getting relegated. In a study conducted by the University of Leicester, at least one newly promoted team should expect to stay in the English Premier League for between 2 and 5 seasons 95% of the time.

However, the probability of all three teams surviving is also rare if one starts the period from the beginning of the Premier League (1992-93).

The 2021-22 season was just the fourth time since the start of the Premier League, that all three promoted sides (Fulham, Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest) have avoided the drop – following 2001-02 (Blackburn, Bolton and Fulham), 2011-12 (QPR, Norwich and Swansea) and 2017-18 (Brighton, Huddersfield and Newcastle).

 

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