Bears Need to Aim Higher than Projections

Analysis: Bears free agent spending projections require bigger defensive objectives and more spent cash.

The Bears loved what they saw when Montez Sweat pressured passers, but when offensive lines overplayed him it often became problematic.

Bears coach Matt Eberflus will call defensive plays in 2024 - Chicago Sun-Times

They know they don’t want to blitz 22.2% of the time again, a figure that Sportsradar said was 21st most—highest finish for blitz rate by any of Matt Eberflus’ six NFL defenses.

It’s why new defensive coordinator Eric Washington said that would be ending.

“We’d like to be—we’re going to be—a team that generates pressure with our front four,” Washington said. “We’re going to build the best pass rush in football. That happens to be an area, fortunately an area, that I’ve had tremendous success with and we have the personnel to get that done.”

He’s going to probably need more help to get this done. It won’t all come in the draft. Some could, but there are options in free agency that don’t include spending $35 million for Chris Jones.

With free agency approaching, some web analysts see Bears options here or at other positions.

Pro Football Focus’ Brad Spielberger went through the edge rush options in free agency and offered up four he thought would fit as potential Bears targets.

A few seem to be fits, but the biggest complaint about Spielberger’s Bears targets is he seems to be more worried about their cap space than he should. He was being downright chintzy considering how critical this need is, weighed against their available cap space.

The four players he classified as fits for the Bears were Houston defensive end Jonathan Greenard, Buffalo end A.J. Epenesa, Indianapolis edge Tyquan Lewis and San Francisco edge rusher Clelin Ferrell.

A team with $66.3 million in effective cap space, as Overthecap.com, should be aiming a bit higher than Greenard and other low-level free agents.

Epenesa fits the Bears defensive end prototype size at 6-foot-6, 260, but in four years he has 15 1/2 sacks. He did get 13 of those the last two years and appears to be ascending, but has had only 14 pressures each of the last three seasons and seven QB knockdowns the last two years according to Sportradar.

Spielberger does make the valid point, that Epenesa is familiar with the new Bears defensive coordinator from time working together in Buffalo. So, it could be a good fit.

Another player with a past tie to this coaching regime is Lewis, and he also is a player who seems to be on the rise after a very slow start to his career.

“Lewis doubled his prior career high in a season with 44 pressures in 2023,” Spielberger pointed out.

It’s an excellent total, and Lewis is 6-3, 267, which makes him perfect size-wise for an end in Eberlfus’ scheme. But he should be. It was Eberflus who had a hand in getting him drafted in 2018 by the Colts.

As much pressure as Lewis generated last year, he had only four sacks and matched his career high.

He has only 13 1/2 sacks in six seasons. A team with Sweat and then a bunch of non-producers as pass rushers doesn’t need another one who can’t produce at least six sacks or more.

Greenard is easily the top player on this list from Spielberger. He hjad a breakout year in 2021 with eight sacks and many forgot about him in 2022 when he had injury issues and missed more than half the season. But last season during the Texans’ run to the playoffs he delivered 12 1/2 sacks. That’s the same number as Sweat last year. And he had 32 pressures. Spotrac.com had projected $13.4 million a year for Greenard, and that’s only slightly more than the Bears paid Ngakoue last year. In this cap situation, that would be easily manageable.

Ferrell is another lower producer for four seasons with the Raiders, making just 10 1/2 sacks. He had 4 1/2 as a rookie in 2019 and has never hit that figure again.

It is possible Ferrell’s skills were hidden last year with the 49ers because of the large number of productive pass rushers they have. He had 3 1/2 sacks in 465 plays.

A Bears Free Agent Receiver?

Pro Football Focus isn’t the only site pointing toward free agency. CBS Sports posted Bears free agency needs but curiously listed guard prominently while forgetting safety. The Bears right now are down a starting safety and their backups are not the most experienced, reliable players. Elijah Hicks tries hard but hasn’t been extremely effective in coverage when he has had the chance.

CBS’s Cody Benjamin found a home for the top free agents by conducting a “free agent draft,” with teams picking based on their salary cap space.

The Bears wound up with Tampa Bay free agent receiver Mike Evans, who is unlikely to be tagged.

Evans also is unlikely to be headed to the Bears, who would be more interested in a draft pick at No. 2 receiver than someone in their 30s.

They have one high-end wide receiver already in DJ Moore and wouldn’t be spending what Spotrac.com projects to be $23.8 million for their second receiver when Moore is only counting about $16 million against the cap this year.

“Evans finally gives them a formidable 1-2 punch out wide, pairing Evans’ big-bodied dominance with DJ Moore’s electricity,” Benjamin wrote.

This is true, but it doesn’t offset salary cap facts about Moore.

Wiser use of the Bears’ cap cash would be a defensive end like Danielle Hunter and a veteran center, to go with retaining Jaylon Johnson on the franchise tag. If they have to go receiver in free agency, Curtis Samuel would be a better, younger, cheaper option for the slot. He is good friends with Moore from their Carolina days together.

The new, higher cap figure makes this all possible, as well as a few more signings if necessary.

They can address other needs in the draft, including solving their quarterback need.